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FOCUS: GEOPOLITICS
With the right knowledge,
you can spot opportunities
in an uncertain world
Many people look at current events to understand the world around them.
Given the state of the world, this can be frightening and incomprehensible.
Knowledge of the underlying processes of geopolitical change makes them
easier to understand and its risks can be transformed into opportunities.
Andreas von der Heide, CEO of Consilio, helps companies and “The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has the potential to impact
organizations manage geopolitical change. us in the medium term,” explains Andreas von der Heide. “It is, and
“We define geopolitics as the way in which states compete will be, a region in which both China and Russia have interests, and
for influence in geographically delimited areas; the intersection of this affects trade and energy supply, for example. A longer-term issue
geography and politics,” he says. “Understanding the underlying is the conflict over Taiwan, the question being whether or not it will
processes makes it easier to predict and manage geopolitical change. turn into a military conflict. Sweden needs to be ready for an unstable
and volatile world and prioritize internal and external security by
People are being fed with phenomena such as war and conflict on rapidly building up strong armed forces and a resilient civil society.”
a daily basis, becoming preoccupied with them. There is a real risk of
missing the big picture that explains why conflicts occur.” The crucial issue for business right now is the fraught relationship
between China and the US, which is likely to worsen. If you have
A PERIOD OF INSTABILITY AND CONFLICT operations in China, there is a major risk that it will be difficult to get
The Cold War – 1949 to 1989 – was perhaps the most stable period raw materials, components and technology into the country and then
in human history. Everything could be categorized as the ‘Cold War’ get the products you have manufactured out.
between the US and what was then the Soviet Union.
“If you have operations in the United States, have exposure to the
“Many claim that today, we are in the midst of a new cold war, but United States or depend on technology from the United States, you
this isn’t true,” explains Andreas von der Heide. “On the contrary, are also at risk,” says Andreas von der Heide. “But if you can cope
we’re currently in a period of instability and conflict.” with the situations in China and the US, you have a huge competitive
advantage. Where Mellby Gård is concerned, this means, for example,
When the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, the Cold War ended and many in that Kappahl needs to look at alternatives to Chinese cotton and that
the West declared it as ‘the end of history’. Capitalism had triumphed, Roxtec needs to manage its American customers.”
there would be eternal peace, liberal values would reign supreme and
the world would become a monoculture. DEPENDENCE ON A SINGLE SUPPLIER A RISK
Another key issue is the security situation in our own geographical
“But in other parts of the world, China and Russia, they took a area, which means ensuring that we are not dependent on a single
different approach and started acting in ways that the West hadn’t supplier for essential goods. For example, companies such as Feralco
expected,” says Andreas von der Heide. “There was competition for should increase their stocks of certain chemicals.
trade flows, raw materials, energy – and today’s multipolar world
emerged.” If they are to cope with geopolitical change, companies need to be
ahead of the curve and have a flexible organization that can cope with
As clear as this world has been for a few decades, it is equally the situations that arise.
evident that we are entering a global situation with China on one side
and the US on the other. The question is how India will act. Will they “I feel that Mellby Gård takes geopolitics very seriously, and it’s
choose China or the US? gratifying to see that they don't only focus on risks, but instead use
their knowledge to also act upon the business opportunities that may
THREE CONFLICTS AFFECTING SWEDEN arise,” concludes Andreas von der Heide.
The geopolitical conflicts directly affecting Sweden at the present
time are Russia, the Middle East and Taiwan. The likelihood that
Russia will continue to pose a potential threat is high, regardless of
what happens in Ukraine. Russia is likely to continue on its path of
expansion.
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