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EXCALIBUR

Business intelligence to
spread and minimize risk

Looking ahead to 2024 and beyond, Excalibur is closely “Humans are astonishingly good at adapting to different types of
monitoring geopolitical developments around the world – to crises and wars,” says Thomas Pohjanen. “Ukraine has quickly and
understand, diversify and implement strategies to mitigate and successfully transitioned to a war economy while halting Russia’s
hedge various risks in its portfolio in any given situation. advance.

Conflicts, tensions and global challenges can have major There’s also an imminent risk that the conflict between Israel and
consequences for the world economy, free trade, investment decisions Palestine, which escalated again in the fall of 2023, could escalate and
and financial flows, as well as for the green transition. Excalibur is spread. This may involve armed engagement by other parties in the
currently paying particular attention to a variety of high and low region and the eruption of social unrest and conflict elsewhere.”
intensity conflicts in Europe, the Middle East and Asia.
GLOBAL CHALLENGES REMAIN
“Managing geopolitical risks and risks in general is about being
prepared and spreading your risks as the world changes,” says Thomas A rapid green transition to ensure lower greenhouse gas emissions is
Pohjanen, CEO of Excalibur. an urgent global challenge for future generations. This issue has been
further accentuated and brought to the fore by the Ukraine war, already
CONFLICTS SLOW DOWN GROWTH affecting overall energy supply and transmission capacity within and
between countries.
The tension between China and the US in the South China Sea is
potentially a major geopolitical risk. Taiwan is taking center stage in Since the pandemic, many countries are now facing major budget
this respect, and the conflict has manifested itself in Chinese military deficits. Many countries chose to stimulate domestic consumption,
escalation and increased US presence in the region. Trade barriers with generous payments to both businesses and households. Looking
and restrictions, particularly regarding high-tech inputs, have been ahead, more countries are predicted to have to deal with high inflation
gradually implemented and risk slowing down global growth. through more restrictive policies.

As a direct consequence of Russia’s war of aggression against
Ukraine, Sweden and Finland have abandoned their long tradition of a
policy of neutrality. NATO members are expected to invest two percent
of GDP annually in military spending and armaments, which will have
a major impact on the military-industrial complex and the world
economy.

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